World And Turkish Economy Forecasts For 2025 And 2026
- According to United Nations forecasts, the World Economy will grow by 2.8% and 2.9%, the Turkish Economy will grow by 3.1% and 3.5% in 2025 and 2026 respectively..
- According to World Bank forecasts, the World Economy will grow by 2.7% and 2.7%, the Turkish Economy will grow by 2.6% and 3.8% in 2025 and 2026 respectively.
- According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts, the world economy will grow by 3.3% and 3.3%, the Turkish economy will grow by 2.6% and 3.2% in 2025 and 2026 respectively.
- According to OECD forecasts, the World Economy will grow by 3.3% and 3.3%, the Turkish Economy will grow by 2.6% and 4.0%.in 2025 and 2026 respectively.
INTRODUCTİON:
The United Nations (UN), the World Bank (WBG) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) publish periodic reports on the world economic outlook, which include macroeconomic conditions and forecasts on a global and country-by-country basis.
The World and Turkish Economy forecasts for 2025 and 2026 in these reports are briefly summarized below.
1- UNITED NATIONS FORECASTS THE WORLD ECONOMY TO BE GROW BY 2.8% AND 2.9% TURKİSH ECONOMY TO BE GROW BY 3.1% AND 3.5% IN 2025 AND 2026 RESPECTİVELY
World Economic Situation and Prospects 2025 Report was published by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs in January 2025.
Economic growth, inflation and world trade volume forecasts for the world economy and the Turkish economy for the years 2025 and 2026 are given below.
According to the United Nations, the world economy remained resilient in 2024, despite years of shocks and the longest period of inflation-driven monetary tightening in recent history. In the near term, global economic growth will remain stable but sluggish. While disinflation and monetary easing in many countries have stimulated demand, ongoing conflicts and rising geopolitical tensions could exacerbate supply challenges. Moreover, fiscal tightness and ongoing debt problems in many emerging economies will continue to constrain economic growth and the ability to invest in productive capacities.
Growth Forecasts:
The world economy is expected to grow by 2.8% in 2024, and estimated 2.8% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026.
The economic growth rate in the Americas is estimated to be 2.0% and 2.1% in 2025 and 2026, respectively.
Economic growth in Europe is estimated at 1.3% and 1.5% in 2025 and 2026, respectively.
Economic growth in Asia is estimated at 4.2% and 4.1% in 2025 and 2026, respectively.
In Turkey, economic growth is expected to be 3.0% in 2024, 3.1% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026.
Inflation Forecasts:
The inflation rate in developed countries is expected to be 2.6% in 2024, 2.2% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026.
In Europe, the inflation rate is expected to be 2.2% and 1.9% in 2025 and 2026, respectively.
The inflation rate in developing countries is estimated at 5.1% and 4.0% in 2025 and 2026, respectively.
In Türkiye, the inflation rate is expected to be 60% in 2024, 43.9% in 2025 and 21.6% in 2026.
World Trade Volume Forecasts:
The rate of increase in world exports is expected to be 6.4% in 2024, 5.3% in 2025 and 7.2% in 2026. In the same years, import growth is estimated to be 6.6%, 3.2% and 4.2%, respectively.
In developed countries, export growth rates are estimated at 4.6% and 6.9% in 2025 and 2026, respectively. In the same years, import growth is estimated at 3.9% and 6.3%, respectively.
The rate of export growth in developing countries is estimated to be 6.3% and 7.8% in 2025 and 2026, respectively. In the same years, import growth is estimated at 3.5% and 3.7%, respectively.
2- WORLD BANK FORECASTS THE WORLD ECONOMY TO BE GROW BY 2.7% AND 2.7% TURKİSH ECONOMY TO BE GROW BY 2.6% AND 3.8% IN 2025 AND 2026 RESPECTİVELY:
The World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects, January 2025 Report was published on January 2025.
Below are the forecasts for economic growth, inflation and world trade volume for the world economy and the Turkish economy in 2025 and 2026 from the World Bank Report.
The World Bank expects global growth to remain stable at 2.7 percent in 2025-26. However, the global economy appears to be settling into a low growth rate that will be insufficient to foster sustainable economic development, with increasing policy uncertainty and the possibility of further headwinds from unfavorable trade policy changes, geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and climate-related natural disasters. Against this backdrop, emerging market and developing economies are poised to enter the second quarter of the twenty-first century on a trajectory that will see per capita incomes catch up with living standards in advanced economies much more slowly than they have previously experienced. Unless adjustments are made, most low-income countries are unlikely to move to middle-income status by mid-century.
Growth Forecasts:
The world economy is expected to grow by 2.7%, and estimated in 2024, 2.7% in 2025 and 2.7% in 2026.
Growth rates in 2025 and 2026:
- 7% and 1.8% in advanced economies, respectively
- 1% and 4.0% in emerging market and developing economies
- 7% and 1.8% in high-income countries
- 7% and 1.8% in middle-income countries
- 7% and 1.8% in low-income countries
in low-income countries.
These rates are estimated at 2.3% and 2.0% for the US, 1.0% and 1.2% for the euro area, 4.5% and 4.0% for China, 1.6% and 1.1% for Russia, 5.0% and 4.7% for Argentina, 3.5% and 4.2% for Egypt, 6.7% and 6.7% for India.
The growth rate of the Turkish economy is expected to be 3.2% in 2024, and estimated as 2.6% in 2025 and 3.8% in 2026.
Commodity Prices:
The World Bank Commodity Price Index, which is estimated to be 104.5 in 2024, is estimated to be 98.5 for 2025 and 96.7 for 2026.
The Energy Price Index is projected to be 100.8 in 2024, 93.6 in 2025 and 94.7 in 2026.
The non-energy price index is projected at 112.1 in 2024, 108.5 in 2025 and 107 in 2026.
The price per barrel of oil is estimated to be $80, $72 and $71 in 2024, 2025 and 2026, respectively.
3- INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND (IMF) FORECASTS THE WORLD ECONOMY TO BE GROW BY 3.3% AND 3.3% TURKİSH ECONOMY TO BE GROW BY 2.6% AND 3.2% IN 2025 AND 2026 RESPECTİVELY
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) published its “World Economic Outlook Update, January 2025: Global Growth: Divergent and Uncertain” report on January 2025.
Below are the forecasts for economic growth, inflation and world trade volume for the world economy and the Turkish economy in 2025 and 2026 from the IMF Report.
The global economy remains stable, but the degree of stability varies widely across countries. Following disappointing data releases in some Asian and European economies, global GDP growth in the third quarter of 2024 was 0.1 percentage points lower than projected in the October 2024 WEO. In China, growth remained below expectations at 4.7 percent year-on-year. In India, growth also slowed more than expected on the back of a sharper-than-expected slowdown in industrial activity. Growth in the euro area remained subdued (Germany’s performance lagged behind that of other euro area countries), largely reflecting continued weakness in manufacturing and exports of goods, even as consumption rose in line with the recovery in real incomes. Output in Japan contracted moderately due to temporary supply disruptions. In contrast, momentum in the United States remained strong, with the economy growing by 2.7 percent year-on-year in the third quarter, supported by robust consumption.
Global growth is projected at 3.3 percent in both 2025 and 2026, below the historical (2000-19) average of 3.7 percent. The forecast for 2025 in the October 2024 World Economic Outlook (WEO) is largely unchanged, mainly due to an upward revision in the US offsetting downward revisions in other major economies. Global headline inflation is expected to fall to 4.2 percent in 2025 and 3.5 percent in 2026, converging to target sooner in advanced economies than in emerging market and developing economies.
Growth Forecasts:
The world economy is expected to grow by 3.2% in 2024, 3.3% in 2025 and 3.3% in 2026.
Growth rates in 2025 and 2026:
- 9% and 1.8% in advanced economies, respectively
- 2% and 4.3% in emerging market and developing economies
- 4% and 1.7% in the European Union
- 6% and 3.9% in the Middle East and Central Asia
These rates are estimated at 2.7% and 2.1% for the US, 1.6% and 1.5% for the UK, 0.3% and 1.1% for Germany, 4.6% and 4.5% for China, 1.4% and 1.2% for Russia, 5.0% and 5.0% for Argentina, 3.6% and 4.1% for Egypt, 6.5% and 6.5% for India.
The growth rate of the Turkish economy is expected to be 2.8% in 2024, 2.6% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026.
Inflation Rate Forecasts:
World consumer prices are projected to increase by -5.7% in 2024 – The inflation rate is estimated at 4.2% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026.
Inflation rate in 2025 and 2026:
- 1% and 2.0% in advanced economies, respectively
- 6% and 4.5% in emerging market and developing economies
- and 4.5% in emerging market and developing economies.
Commodity Prices:
The rate of change in oil prices, which is estimated to be -1.9% in 2024, is projected to be 2.5% in 2025 and -0.1% in 2026.
The rate of change in non-oil commodity prices, which is estimated to be 3.4% in 2024, is projected to be -11.7% in 2025 and -2.6% in 2026.
World Trade Volume Forecasts:
The rate of increase in world trade volume, which is estimated to be 3.4% in 2024, is projected to be 3.2% in 2025 and 3.3% in 2026.
The rate of increase in world trade volume in 2025 and 2026 is estimated to be 2.1% and 2.5% in developed countries and 5.0% and 4.6% in Emerging Market and Developing Economies, respectively.
4- OECD FORECASTS THE WORLD ECONOMY TO BE GROW BY 3.3% AND 3.3% TURKİSH ECONOMY TO BE GROW BY 2.6% AND 4.0% IN 2025 AND 2026 RESPECTİVELY :
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) World Economic Outlook 2024 Report (OECD Economic Outlook 2024) was published in December 2024.
Below are the economic growth and inflation forecasts for the world economy and the Turkish economy in 2025 and 2026 in the OECD Report.
Global GDP growth is projected to strengthen slightly to 3.3% in 2025 and remain stable at this level until 2026. In OECD economies, GDP growth is projected to moderate compared to the pre-pandemic period, at 1.9% in both 2025 and 2026. In non-OECD economies, aggregate growth is also expected to remain stable around its current pace, with emerging Asia continuing to be the largest contributor to global growth.
Headline inflation continued to decline in most countries through 2024, as food, energy and goods price inflation continued to fall. However, services price inflation is still persistent and stood at around 4% in the median OECD economy in September. Looking ahead, annual consumer price inflation is expected to fall further in the G20 countries, and by late 2025 or early 2026, inflation is expected to return to target in almost all the remaining major economies.
Growth Forecasts:
The world economy is expected to grow by 3.2% in 2024 and estimated as 3.3% in 2025 and 2026, respectively.
The growth rate in OECD countries, which is expected to be 1.7% in 2024, is estimated to be 1.9% and 1.9% in 2025 and 2026, respectively.
The growth rate in G20 countries is expected to be 3.3% in 2024 and 3.3% and 3.2% in 2025 and 2026, respectively.
The growth rate of the Turkish economy is expected to be 3.5% in 2024, and estimated as 2.6% in 2025 and 4.0% in 2026.
Inflation Forecasts:
The inflation rate in OECD countries is expected to be 5.4% in 2024, 3.8% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026.
In G20 countries, the inflation rate is expected to be 5.4% in 2024, 3.5% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026.
The inflation rate in Turkey is expected to be 58.3% in 2024, 30.7% in 2025 and 17.2% in 2026.
Unemployment Rate Projections:
The unemployment rate in OECD countries is expected to be 4.9% in 2024, 4.9% in 2025 and 4.8% in 2026.
In Turkey, the unemployment rate is expected to be 8.8% in 2024, 9.0% in 2025 and 8.6% in 2026.
World Trade Volume Forecasts:
The rate of increase in world trade volume is expected to be 3.5% in 2024, 3.6% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026.
The rate of increase in Turkey’s exports is expected to be -0.01% in 2024, 2.0% in 2025 and 4.0% in 2026.
The rate of increase in Turkey’s imports is expected to be -4.7% in 2024, -0.02% in 2025 and 3.3% in 2026.
