PUBLIC FINANCE & THE TURKISH ECONOMY

Q2 2026 Realizations and Expectations

 

I.                PUBLIC FINANCE:

1-     The Central Government Budget posted a deficit of 942 billion TL as of the end of the second quarter of 2026. In the same period last year, it had posted a deficit of 980 billion TL.

a)     During this period, non-interest expenses increased by 32% to .265 billion TL, while interest expenses increased by 31% to 1.464 billion TL.

b)     Tax Revenues increased by 66 % to 6.619 billion TL.

2-     The central government’s total gross debt stock increased by 535.2 billion TL compared to the previous quarter, reaching 14,992 billion TL as of the end of the second quarter of 2026.

II.             BALANCE OF PAYMENTS:

1-     The Current Account recorded a deficit of $34.5 billion as of the end of the second quarter of 2026. It had recorded a deficit of $25.9 billion during the same period last year..

2-     Financial Account recorded an outflow of $17.0 billion.

a.      Direct investments recorded a net outflow of $1.1 billion.

b.     Portfolio investments recorded a net outflow of $1.1 billion.

c.      İn the “Financial Derivatives” item, recorded outflow of $2.7 billion as of the end of the second quarter of 2026.

d.     Other investments recorded a net inflow of $22.0 billion.

3-     The Net Error and Omission account recorded an outflow of $14.7 billion..

4-     Overall balance recorded a deficit of $32.3 billion, resulting in a corresponding decrease of $32.3 billion in official reserves..

III.           TÜRKİYE’S EXTERNAL DEBT

1-     Türkiye’s gross external debt realized as of the first quarter of 2026 was $518.5 billion.

2-     Türkiye’s net external debt stock realized as of the fourth quarter of 2025 was $200.9 billion.

IV.           MACRO ECONOMY:

1-     Turkish Economy grew by 2,0% in the 1. quarter of 2026.  

2-     Türkiye’s Growth expectation for the next year is 4.1%

 

 

 

INTRODUCTION

This study includes latest data published as of August 13, 2026 on macroeconomy, central government budget implementation results, central government debt stock, current account balance, and Türkiye’s external debt.

I.               PUBLIC FINANCE

According to the statistics on Central Government Budget Realizations and Central Government Debt Stock published by the Ministry of Treasury and Finance, the public finance data for the second quarter of 2026 are as follows:

1-   The Central Government Budget posted a deficit of 942 billion TL in the 2 nd quarter of 2026 :

Budget expenditures increased by 32% in the January–June 2026 period, compared to the same period last year, reaching 8,739 billion TL, while budget revenues increased by 39%, reaching 7,787 billion TL.

Tax Revenues increased by 66 % to 6.619 billion TL in this period.

As a result of these figures, the Central Government Budget, which had recorded a deficit of 980 billion TL during the same period last year, posted a deficit of 942 billion TL during this period.

Central Government Budget Realisations						Değişim %
(Million TRL)	2025	2026
	2nd quarter	1st quarter	2nd quarter
BUDGET EXPENDITURE	6.579.058	4.425.431	8.730.179	32,7
Personnel Expenses	1.747.793	1.298.926	2.493.562	42,7
S.S. Institution State Premium	212.258	164.506	316.799	49,3
Purchases of Goods and Servi.	413.188	265.323	598.232	44,8
Current Transfers	2.512.316	1.603.790	3.115.257	24,0
Capital Expenditure	432.361	116.449	464.082	7,3
Capital Transfers	50.320	36.035	116.434	131,4
Lending	99.383	64.331	161.565	62,6
İnterest Expenditure	1.111.440	876.071	1.464.249	31,7
BUDGET REVENUES	5.598.580	4.005.382	7.787.344	39,1
Tax Revenues	4.771.457	3.360.367	6.619.741	38,7
Enterprise and Prop.Income	127.585	144.655	206.162	61,6
Special Income Dona. and Aid	72.297	17.819	38.917	-46,2
Interest, Shares and Penalties	433.585	329.790	666.939	53,8
Capital Revenues	22.593	38.215	42.554	88,4
Collection from Receivables	2.870	472	960	-66,6
Special Budget Admi. Reve.	128.923	81.866	159.879	24,0
Regula. and sup. bodies İnco.	39.271	32.197	52.192	32,9
BUDGET BALANCE	-980.478	-420.049	-942.835	3,8

 

 

 

 

2-   As of the second quarter of 2026, the total gross debt stock of the central government realized as TL 14,992 billion.

The central government’s total gross debt stock increased by 535.2 billion TL as of the second quarter of 2026, compared to the previous quarter, reaching 14,992 billion TL.. ^[1] 

Of the total debt stock, 9,013 billion TL is domestic debt, and 5,978 billion TL is foreign debt..[2]

Central Government Total Gross Debt Stock (in millions of TL)
	Treasury Bill (I)	Government Bond	International Bond	Total Bonds (II)	Loan (III)	Domestic Debt Stock	External Debt Stock	Total Stock (I+II+III)
1986	1	9	0	9	14	11	13	23
1990	5	49	6	55	73	57	76	134
2000	2.058	34.363	14.093	48.456	13.253	36.421	27.347	63.767
2005	17.818	226.964	42.553	269.517	44.604	244.782	87.157	331.939
2010	9.525	343.317	68.641	411.957	52.664	352.841	121.305	474.146
2015	0	440.124	167.345	607.469	70.777	440.124	238.122	678.246
2020	0	1.060.354	592.959	1.653.312	159.536	1.060.354	752.495	1.812.849
2021	9.920	1.311.270	1.087.334	2.398.604	339.305	1.321.189	1.426.639	2.747.828
2022	18.896	1.886.435	1.644.901	3.531.336	485.223	1.905.331	2.130.124	4.035.455
2023	1.251	3.208.001	2.717.554	5.925.555	809.826	3.209.252	3.527.380	6.736.632
2024	66.320	4.893.590	3.332.329	8.225.919	965.183	4.959.910	4.297.511	9.257.422
2025	316.036	7.836.721	4.155.231	11.991.951	1.354.105	8.152.757	5.509.336	13.662.092
2026-I	330.791	8.340.531	4.398.063	12.738.594	1.387.874	8.671.322	5.785.936	14.457.259
2026-II	187.950	8.825.924	4.516.861	13.342.785	1.461.771	9.013.874	5.978.631	14.992.505

II.            BALANCE OF PAYMENTS

According to the “Balance of Payments Developments” statistics for June 2026 published by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Turkey's balance of payments for the second quarter of 2026 is as follows. ^[3]  

1-   The Current Account recorded a deficit of $34.5 billion as of the end of the second quarter of 2026. It had recorded a deficit of $25.9 billion during the same period last year:

§  Exports rose by 1.6% compared to the same period last year, reaching $133.1 billion, while İmports rose by 5.2%, reaching $176.8 billion.

§  The trade deficit increased by 18%, reaching $43.7 billion..

2-   Finance Account recorded an outflow of $17.0 billion as of the end of the second quarter of 2026,. During the same period last year, there had been an inflow of $0.9 billion:

§  Direct investments recorded a net outflow of 1,1 billion dollars.

§  Portfolio investments recorded a net outflow of 1,1 billion dollars.

§  Financial Derivatives recorded a net outflow of 2,7 billion dollars.

§  Other investments recorded a net inflow of 22,0 billion dollars.

3-   Net Errors and Omissions Item recorded an outflow of 14,7 billion Dolar:

The net outflow in the “Net Errors and Omissions” item, which amounted to $16.1 billion as of the end of the second quarter of 2025, realized $14.7 billion as of the end of the second quarter of 2026

4-   As of the end of the second quarter of 2026, the overall balance recorded a deficit of $32.3 billion, resulting in a corresponding decrease of $32.3 billion in official reserves..

Balance of Payment (Million USD)		2025 Jan.-June	2026 Jan.-June	Changes
CURRENT ACCOUNT		-25.998	-34.548		32,9%
Exports		131.012	133.125		1,6%
Imports		168.075	176.845		5,2%
Balance on Goods		-37.063	-43.720		18,0%
Services: Credit		51.915	52.648		1,4%
Services: Debit		28.352	28.841		1,7%
Primary Income: Credit		5.661	4.440
Primary Income: Debit		17.793	17.289
Secondary Income		-366	-1.786
CAPITAL ACCOUNT		-5	-103
FINANCIAL ACCOUNT		929	-17.078
Direct Investment:	Net Asset Acquisition	5.339	8.725		-1.118
	Net Liability Creation	4.221	12.441
Portfolio Invesment	Net Asset Acquisition	12.098	12.363		-1.128
	Net Liability Creation	10.970	10.551
Financial Derivatives	Net Asset Acquisition	-8.318			-2.728
	Net Liability Creation	-11.046
Other Investment	Net Asset Acquisition	2.397	12.449		22.052
	Net Liability Creation	24.449	29.338
NET ERRORS AND OMISSIONS		-26.932	-17.573
GENERAL BALANCE		-235	-14.735
RESERVE ASSETS		27.167	32.308
Official Reserves		-27.167	-32.308

III.         TÜRKİYE'S GROSS EXTERNAL DEBT

According to statistics published by the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye, Türkiye's external debt figures are as follows.

1-   Türkiye's gross external debt realized at 518,5 billion Dollar as of the second quarter of 2026. 

Türkiye’s gross external debt stock realized at $518.5 billion as of the second quarter of 2026. It stood at $520.4 billion in the previous quarter.

While the private sector’s debt increased by $5.3 billion compared to the previous quarter, reaching $302.0 billion, the public sector’s total external debt decreased by $6.6 billion, falling to $192.1 billion.

GROSS EXTERNAL DEBT STOCK of TÜRKİYE
Million USD	PUBLIC SECTOR			CBRT					PRIVATE SECTOR						GROSS EXTERNAL DEBT STOCK (I+II+III)
	SHORT TERM	LONG TERM	TOTAL (I)	SHORT TERM		LONG TERM		TOTAL (II)	SHORT TERM	LONG TERM		TOTAL (III)
1990	0	33.268	33.268	855	7.487		8.342		8.645		2.125		10.770	52.381
1995	250	41.753	42.003	993	11.178		12.171		14.257		7.517		21.774	75.948
2000	2.461	47.621	50.081	653	13.437		14.090		25.187		29.244		54.431	118.602
2005	2.133	76.057	78.190	2.763	12.662		15.425		38.556		50.898		89.454	183.069
2010	4.291	96.445	100.736	1.553	10.012		11.565		87.104		121.046		208.150	320.451
2015	16.998	113.803	130.801	176	1.143		1.319		87.385		193.668		281.053	413.173
2020	24.909	124.024	148.933	21.344	0		21.344		65.254		154.804		220.058	390.335
2021	21.973	112.165	134.138	26.052	0		26.052		70.214		147.485		217.699	377.889
2022	28.531	99.421	127.952	32.790	0		32.790		87.106		140.301		227.407	388.149
2023	33.711	114.224	147.935	46.360	0		46.360		94.906		142.904		237.810	432.105
2024	37.286	137.125	174.411	34.701	0		34.701		101.000		150.702		251.702	460.814
2025	38.343	160.447	198.790	24.965	0		24.965		104.080		192.647		296.727	520.482
2026-I	36.408	155.748	192.156	24.252	0		24.252		105.922		196.176		302.098	518.506

2-   Türkiye's net external debt stock stood at $200.9 billion as of the fourth quarter of 2025:

Türkiye's net external debt stock stood at $200.9 billion as of the fourth quarter of 2025. It had been at $182.4 billion in the previous quarter.

IV.         TURKİSH ECONOMY:

According to the latest statistics published by the Türkiye Statistical Institute (TUIK) and the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (TCMB) as of Agust 13, 2026, The data and forecasts of Türkiye’s macroeconomy are as follows.

1-   Turkish Economy grew by 2.5% in the first quarter of 2026

The table below shows some key macroeconomic data published by the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) and the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) on the Turkish Economy.

2-   Growth expectations for the Turkish Economy is 4.1% for the next year:

The Table below shows the macroeconomic expectations revealed in the latest Economic Confidence Index[4] published the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) and the latest Market Participants Survey published by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT).

As can be seen from the table, the projected growth rate for the Turkish economy for next year is 4.1%, which is higher than the most recently announced growth rate.

The July 2026 Market Participants Survey was completed by 65 participants representing the real sector and the financial sector, and the results were evaluated by aggregating the participants’ responses.