The growth, inflation, global trade volume, and commodity price forecasts from the WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK UPDATE—The Economy Amid the Tug-of-War Between War and Technology, July 2026, published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), are briefly summarized below.

1-     The global economy is projected to grow by 3.0% and 3.4% in 2026 and 2027, respectively, while the Turkish economy is projected to grow by 2.9% and 3.6%.

2-     Global inflation is projected to be 4.7% and 3.9% in 2026 and 2027, respectively, while in Türkiye it is projected to be 28.6% and 21.4%, respectively.

3-     Oil prices are expected to rise by 31.8% in 2026 and fall by 11.8% in 2027, while non-oil commodity prices are expected to rise by 18.6% and 1.3%, respectively, in those years.

4-     Global trade volume will increase by 3.5% and 4.3% in 2026 and 2027, respectively.

1-          The global economy is projected to grow by 3.0% and 3.4% in 2026 and 2027, respectively, while the Turkish economy is projected to grow by 2.9% and 3.6%:

A moderate slowdown in global growth is projected for 2026 and 2027 compared to the 2024–25 period; this moderate slowdown reflects the fact that the effects of the war in the Middle East are being partially offset by the momentum driven by accelerating demand in the global technology cycle, thanks to developments in artificial intelligence (AI) and the adoption of this technology.

Risks to the outlook are more balanced than in April but still tilted to the downside. The possibility of renewed Middle East conflict looms large and could extend commodity price volatility, further threaten supply chains, raise prices, and weigh on financial conditions. A possible correction in technology-driven expectations adds to the downside risks, whereas eroded policy buffers can amplify those risks, Upside risks stem from a swifter-than-expected normalization in energy markets, stronger-than-expected technology investment, a revival of durable cooperation that lowers trade barriers, and structural reform that raises medium-term growth.

Global Economy: while it grew by 3.5 percent in 2025, it is projected to grow by 3.0 percent in 2026 and 3.4 percent in 2027. Compared to the April 2026 WEO projections, these forecasts are 0.1 percentage points lower for 2026 and 0.2 percentage points higher for 2027..

Advanced Economies: While they grew by 1.9 percent in 2025, they are projected to grow by 1.7 percent in 2026 and 1.8 percent in 2027. Compared to the April 2025 WEO projections, these forecasts are 0.1 percentage points lower for 2026 and 0.1 percentage points higher for 2027.

Emerging and Developing Economies: While they grew by 4.5 percent in 2025, they are projected to grow by 3.8 percent in 2026 and 4.5 percent in 2027. Compared to the April 2026 WEO projections, these forecasts are 0.1 percentage points lower for 2026 and 0.3 percentage points higher for 2027.

Euro Area Economy: While it grew by 1.4 percent in 2025, it is projected to grow by 0.9 percent in 2026 and 1.2 percent in 2027. Compared to the April 2026 WEO projections, these forecasts are 0.2 percentage points lower for 2026 and unchanged for 2027.

The Turkish Economy: While it grew by 3.6 percent in 2025, it is expected to grow by 2.9 percent in 2026 and 3.6 percent in 2027. Compared to the April 2026 WEO projections, these forecasts are 0.5 percentage points lower for 2026 and 0.1 percentage points higher for 2027.

2-          Global inflation is projected to be 4.7% and 3.9% in 2026 and 2027, respectively, while in Türkiye it is projected to be 28.6% and 21.4%, respectively:

Global Inflation: While realized 4.1 percent in 2025, it is projected to reach 4.7 percent in 2026 and 3.9 percent in 2027. These projections are 0.3 percentage points higher for 2026 and 0.2 percentage points higher for 2027 compared to the April 2026 WEO projections.

Inflation in Developed Countries: While it realised at 2.5 percent in 2025, it is projected to be 3.0 percent in 2026 and 2.4 percent in 2027. These projections are 0.2 percentage points higher for 2026 and 0.2 percentage points higher for 2027 compared to the April 2026 WEO projections..

Inflation in Emerging Economies: While it realized at 5.2 percent in 2025, it is projected to be 5.8 percent in 2026 and 4.8 percent in 2027. These projections are 0.3 percentage points higher for 2026 and 0.2 percentage points higher for 2027 compared to the April 2026 WEO projections..

Türkiye’s İnflation: According to the April 2026 WEO projections, inflation is expected to reach 34.9 percent in 2025, 28.6 percent in 2026, and 21.4 percent in 2027.

3-          Oil prices are expected to rise by 31.8% in 2026 and fall by 11.8% in 2027, while non-oil commodity prices are expected to rise by 18.6% and 1.3%, respectively, in those years:

Oil prices fell by 14.4 percent in 2025 and are projected to rise by 31.8 percent in 2026 and fall by 11.8 percent in 2027. Compared to the April 2026 WEO projections, these forecasts are 10.4 points higher for 2026 and 4.2 points lower for 2027.

Non-oil commodity prices rose by 9.9 percent in 2025 and are projected to rise by 18.6 percent in 2026 and 1.3 percent in 2027. These projections are 3.1 percentage points lower for 2026 and 0.6 percentage points lower for 2027 compared to the April 2026 WEO projections..

4-          Global trade volume will increase by 3.5% and 4.3% in 2026 and 2027, respectively:

Global Trade Volume:  while it increased by 5.0 percent in 2025, it is projected to grow by 3.5 percent in 2026 and 4.3 percent in 2027. These projections are 0.7 percentage points higher for 2026 and 0.5 percentage points higher for 2027 compared to the April 2026 WEO projections..

Advanced Economies Trade Volume: while it increased by 4.2 percent in 2025, it is projected to grow by 3.4 percent in 2026 and 3.3 percent in 2027. These projections were 0.9 percentage points higher for 2026 and 0.4 percentage points higher for 2027 compared to the April 2026 WEO projections.

Developing and Emerging Economies Trade Volume: while it increased by 6.4 percent in 2025, it is projected to grow by 3.6 percent in 2026 and 5.8 percent in 2027. These projections are 0.5 percentage points higher for 2026 and 0.6 percentage points higher for 2027 compared to the April 2026 WEO projections..